Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Houston on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston’s highest temperature on 3 August is a weather set-up that usually comes down to how quickly afternoon heating builds at William P. Hobby Airport, where the market will settle on the day’s peak reading rather than an end-of-day average. Long-run August conditions in Houston are hot by default: AccuWeather puts the month’s average high at 95°F, while another August outlook for the airport area shows daytime highs commonly around 90°F and typical monthly values in the low-to-mid 80s to mid-90s depending on location and year.[1][16]

That matters for reading the current 0% YES price, because the market only pays on the exact temperature band containing the day’s maximum, not on whether the day is merely “hot”. Recent August forecasts for Houston have leaned towards highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s, with one 2026 city forecast showing a sunny day and a peak near 37°C, while a separate August outlook for Houston points to average highs around 83°F and lows around 66°F.[2][3] In other words, the distribution is broad enough that a single shade of cloud, sea-breeze penetration or a scattered shower can shift the eventual settlement band.

The main catalysts for traders are the local forecast updates closest to the settlement window, especially any changes in cloud cover, rain chances and wind direction in the hours before the afternoon high. A Houston day forecast for 3 August showed a hot, sunny profile with peak temperatures building into the mid-to-upper 30s Celsius and moderate humidity, which would normally support a higher reading if sustained through the warmest part of the day.[3][4] The market resolves from the Wunderground history page for KHOU, so the key dependency is the actual recorded maximum at the station, not what broader Houston forecasts suggest.[18]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Houston on August 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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