Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the measurement of Hong Kong’s peak daily temperature on 5 July 2026, recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory as its absolute maximum in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This single data point will determine which temperature range resolves the market, with settlement finalised once the official “Daily Extract” is published.

Historical July climatology shows average highs around 32°C, and the Observatory has frequently recorded readings above 30°C during this hottest season, making a 0% YES probability for any outcome below 30°C appear inconsistent with long-term patterns[1][7]. Short-term model runs suggest modest day-to-day variability driven by cloud cover, but the seasonal forecast for July–September 2026 indicates normal to above-normal temperatures for Hong Kong, reinforcing the likelihood of highs near or exceeding 32°C[3][5].

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s daily updates for the 5 July entry, particularly the timing of the “Daily Extract” release, which is the sole resolution dependency[5]. Recent weather outlooks for south China note significant fluctuations, with temperatures dropping to 13°C over the weekend before rising to 25°C on Sunday, highlighting the need to watch for sudden cloud or rain shifts that could suppress peak heat[9]. No official injury or suspension news applies here, but the forecast’s reliance on ENSO status and climate models means any revision to those inputs could alter the expected high[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 5?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

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