Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong is set to record its peak daily temperature for 21 July 2026, with the Hong Kong Observatory confirming the final “Absolute Daily Max” in degrees Celsius once the Daily Extract is published. The market currently shows a 0% crowd-implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting traders expect the temperature to fall outside the specified range, though the settlement window remains open until 12:00 UTC on 21 July 2026.

Historical data from recent summers shows Hong Kong’s July highs typically range between 31°C and 35°C, with extreme heatwaves occasionally pushing readings to 36°C or higher. The seasonal forecast for July–September 2026 indicates temperatures are expected to be normal to above-normal, influenced by the current ENSO status and climate model projections [1]. This above-normal trend aligns with past years where heatwaves in mid-July produced record-breaking temperatures, making the 0% probability potentially premature if the Observatory’s final data confirms an extreme value.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s Daily Extract release, which will publish the finalized “Absolute Daily Max” for 21 July. Any delay in data publication or unexpected cloud cover and rainfall could suppress the peak temperature, while sustained high-pressure systems and low humidity may drive it higher. The key dependency is the official confirmation from the Observatory, as the market cannot resolve until this data is finalized and available in the relevant Daily Extract.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.