Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong faces its peak summer heat today as the city monitors the highest temperature recorded on 13 July 2026, with official forecasts projecting a daily maximum of 32°C under partly cloudy skies and possible light rain [1]. The Hong Kong Observatory will resolve this market using the "Absolute Daily Max" from its finalized Daily Extract, ensuring the outcome reflects the precise Celsius reading to one decimal place [1].

Historical July climatology shows average maxima typically sit between 31°C and 32°C, though variability increases significantly during clear-sky periods or when typhoons approach [1]. While the current crowd-implied probability for a specific outcome sits at 0% YES, the market frontrunner is 33°C at 43%, closely followed by 32°C at 38%, suggesting traders expect temperatures to hover near or slightly exceed the seasonal average [1]. Record highs for the month have reached 35.7°C in past years, indicating that a spike above 33°C remains plausible if cloud cover dissipates [2].

Traders should watch real-time updates from the Hong Kong Observatory for any shifts in cloud cover or rain intensity, as these are the primary catalysts that could push temperatures toward the 33°C or higher ranges [1]. The market cannot settle until the official Daily Extract is published, meaning the final resolution depends entirely on the Observatory’s finalized data rather than interim forecasts [1]. Any revisions to temperatures after initial publication will not affect the outcome, locking the result to the first official figure released [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.