Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will publish the absolute daily maximum temperature in degrees Celsius for 1 July 2026, measured to one decimal place, once the data is finalized in its official Daily Extract. This single figure determines the outcome of the prediction market, which currently shows a 0% probability for the "YES" side, implying the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the specific range being wagered on.

Historically, July is Hong Kong’s hottest month, with the Observatory recording 30.3°C as the average monthly temperature in a record-breaking July that broke 11 separate climate records, including 25 hot nights and the highest number of hot days since 1884[1]. On 1 July 2022, temperatures dipped to a monthly low of 25.4°C under heavy rain, demonstrating that early July can still experience significant variability despite the month’s overall heat trend[4]. The highest mean maximum temperature ever recorded in July was 32.9°C in 2007, setting a benchmark for extreme heat that traders should consider when evaluating current probabilities[8].

Traders must monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s Climatological Information Services page for the release of the finalized Daily Extract, as the market cannot resolve until this official data is published[6]. The forecast for July 2026 suggests daily highs ranging from 85°F to 93°F (approximately 29.4°C to 33.9°C), with an average high of 90°F (32.2°C), providing a baseline for expected conditions[2]. Any sudden shifts in weather patterns, such as unexpected rainfall or cloud cover, could significantly alter the maximum temperature recorded on 1 July, making real-time weather updates from the Observatory a critical catalyst for price movement[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.