Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong's weather on 19 August 2026 will be measured against the Observatory's historical daily maximum temperature records. August typically ranks amongst the hottest months in Hong Kong's calendar, with daily highs regularly exceeding 32°C during the summer monsoon season. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature threshold options available or are awaiting clarification on the exact range brackets that will determine settlement.

Historical August data from the Hong Kong Observatory shows considerable year-to-year variation. The territory has recorded absolute daily maxima ranging from approximately 34°C to 36°C during mid-August periods over recent decades, though extreme heat events pushing toward 37°C remain possible though less frequent. Comparable dates in late summer typically see temperatures influenced by the southwest monsoon, with occasional tropical cyclone activity introducing volatility. Understanding the precise temperature bands offered in this market is essential, as even a 0.5°C difference in the recorded high can shift settlement outcomes substantially.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts as August 2026 approaches, particularly any advisories regarding heat waves or unusual atmospheric patterns. Tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during late summer could suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation, whilst persistent high-pressure systems would favour hotter conditions. The Observatory publishes daily extracts with finalised temperature data typically within days of the measurement date, meaning settlement should occur shortly after 19 August 2026.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 19?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

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Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.