Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong's weather on 17 August 2026 will be measured against the Hong Kong Observatory's official daily maximum temperature record, with settlement determined by the absolute daily maximum in degrees Celsius published in the Observatory's Daily Extract database. August sits within Hong Kong's peak summer season, when the territory experiences its most intense heat and humidity, typically driven by the Pacific subtropical high-pressure system and occasional tropical cyclone activity.

Historical August data from the Hong Kong Observatory shows daily maxima routinely exceed 32°C during mid-month, with the territory's all-time August record standing at 36.1°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either an unusually cool August day or uncertainty about which temperature band will ultimately resolve. Comparable August 17 readings from recent years provide the most direct reference: the Observatory's climate records show considerable year-to-year variation, with some mid-August dates reaching 34–35°C whilst others settle in the 31–33°C range depending on monsoon patterns and upper-atmosphere circulation.

Traders should monitor tropical cyclone forecasts issued by the Hong Kong Observatory in the weeks preceding 17 August, as storm systems can dramatically suppress daily maxima through cloud cover and rainfall. The El Niño/La Niña status and sea-surface temperature anomalies across the Western Pacific will influence monsoon intensity. Real-time Observatory updates become critical only in the final week before settlement, when medium-range forecasts stabilise sufficiently to guide temperature expectations.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.