Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong's weather on 12 August 2026 will be measured against the Hong Kong Observatory's official daily maximum temperature record, with settlement determined by which temperature band captures the highest reading in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. August is consistently Hong Kong's hottest month, with mean daily maxima around 31–32°C, though extremes regularly exceed 34°C during heat waves driven by Pacific high-pressure systems and tropical moisture.

Historical data from the Observatory shows August daily maxima typically range between 30°C and 36°C, with readings above 35°C occurring roughly once every two to three years during the month. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the market's temperature bands to be set conservatively or that the specific date falls outside typical heat-wave windows. Comparable August dates in recent years—such as 2023 and 2024—recorded maxima between 32°C and 34°C on most days, though isolated peaks reached 35–36°C during particularly intense subtropical high-pressure episodes.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasting models from late July onwards, particularly any signals of tropical cyclone activity or anomalous upper-level patterns that could suppress temperatures below climatological norms. The Hong Kong Observatory publishes extended forecasts approximately two weeks ahead; significant departures from the August average would alter probability distributions materially. Settlement depends entirely on the Observatory's published "Daily Extract" data, which typically becomes available within days of the observation date, making this market dependent on timely official release rather than real-time measurement disputes.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 12?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.