Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s peak temperature on 11 August will be judged against the Hong Kong Observatory’s **Absolute Daily Max**, not the citywide headlines, so the market turns on what is recorded at the Observatory station once the daily extract is published. That distinction matters because Hong Kong can be materially hotter inland than at the Observatory in Tsim Sha Tsui, as seen on 11 August 2025 when the Observatory was at 29°C at 9 a.m. while inland sites such as Tai Po, Sai Kung and Yuen Long Park were already 31°C.[11]

The main historical frame is that Hong Kong’s August normals already sit in the low 30s: the Observatory’s 1991–2020 climate normals give a mean maximum of 31.1°C for 11 August.[2] Recent comparable extremes have been much higher, including 36.9°C at the Observatory on 9 August 2026, reported as a record since 1884, and 34.4°C on 10 August 2025.[13][4] Forecasts for 11 August 2026 were still pointing to hot conditions, with AccuWeather showing 97°F/84°F and Timeanddate indicating 95°F/83°F with showers early and a mostly cloudy spell; those are consistent with a broad 34–35°C range if cloud or rain does not suppress the daytime peak.[1][7]

For traders, the key catalysts are the Observatory’s hourly readings through the afternoon, any shower bands that arrive early enough to cut off heating, and whether the post-storm hot-air pattern persists after the record heat earlier in the week.[13][16] The market cannot settle until the HKO publishes the final daily extract for 11 August, and the source explicitly says later revisions to temperatures already published for the market window will not count, so the first finalised “Absolute Daily Max” release is the crucial reference point.[3][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

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Which sports markets are available?

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What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.