Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s 1 August maximum is set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s “Absolute Daily Max”, and the market will not settle until the daily extract is published and finalised. August is one of the city’s hottest months on average, with the Observatory’s normals showing a mean maximum of 31.6°C on 1 August and a monthly climate picture that regularly supports highs in the low-30s Celsius.[2][15]

That makes a 0% yes price hard to reconcile with the historical profile. The Observatory has documented recent August extremes well above 34°C, including 35.4°C on 5 August 2024 and 34.4°C on 10 August 2025, while official reporting on 2023 described August as the hottest on record for the month by mean temperature.[9][14][6] Comparable late-summer conditions in Hong Kong have repeatedly produced very hot afternoons rather than mild readings, so any settlement band below the low-30s would need an unusually cool day.[3][11]

For traders, the key catalyst is the Observatory’s weather evolution through the day and the timing of the final Daily Extract publication. The settlement source is the Observatory’s climatological information service, not a forecast product, so the line will be driven by the actual peak temperature recorded at the station and then confirmed in the published daily record.[15] If a strong monsoon surge, persistent rain, or cloud cover trims daytime heating, the highest reading can come in materially lower; if skies clear and the city sits under an anticyclone, the market is exposed to another mid-30s outcome.[9][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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