Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the daily peak temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on 7 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data shows July highs in Guangzhou cluster around 33°C (91°F), rarely dipping below 29°C (85°F) or exceeding 36°C (96°F), with the absolute record reaching 39°C during extreme heatwaves. Given that the current crowd-implied probability for the 0% YES outcome sits at zero, traders appear to dismiss the possibility of a specific low-temperature band, likely because such cool readings are statistically improbable for mid-summer in this region. Comparable markets, such as the recent prediction for 34°C on 3 July which resolved positively, suggest the market accurately prices typical summer peaks near 33–34°C rather than outlier lows.

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates from Wunderground and local meteorological announcements for any sudden shifts in cloud cover or thunderstorm activity, which are frequent in July and can suppress peak temperatures. Recent reports from Xinhua News Agency highlight that Guangzhou has experienced its longest summer since 1961, indicating a persistent heat trend that makes unusually low temperatures even less likely. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 7 July, so the final resolution depends entirely on the highest reading recorded between midnight and that cutoff. Any unexpected heavy rain or severe thunderstorm warnings issued by local authorities before noon could act as a catalyst for lower peaks, though current seasonal patterns strongly favour sustained warmth.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 7?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.