Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou enters its peak summer period on 4 July 2026, with the city experiencing its hottest month of the year. Historical data confirms July averages 28.7°C, while daily highs typically reach 33°C to 35°C, rarely dipping below 30°C[2][5]. The crowd-implied 0% probability for a temperature below 31°C contradicts these established climatology patterns, as even the lowest recorded daily highs in July seldom fall below 30°C[1][7]. Recent records show Guangzhou endured its longest summer since 1961, reinforcing the trend of sustained high temperatures through July and August[6].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, the designated resolution source, as sudden cloud cover or rain could temporarily lower readings[3]. While no immediate weather anomalies are forecast, the dependency on a single station means localised microclimates near the airport could influence the final figure. The China Meteorological Administration’s historical records further validate that 31°C is a conservative threshold for mid-July, making the current market pricing appear significantly misaligned with seasonal norms[2]. Any unexpected precipitation events before 12:00 UTC would be the primary catalyst to watch, though such occurrences remain statistically unlikely in this period.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.