Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou’s 31 July temperature market is effectively a bet on whether the city gets an ordinary midsummer high or a sharper heat spike at Baiyun Airport. July is normally one of the hottest months in Guangzhou, with average highs around 32.7°C and daily highs “rarely” exceeding 35.6°C, while the long-term 31 July average high is 32.9°C.[3][5] In the recent daily history available for the city, late-July highs have clustered mostly in the low-to-mid 30s°C, with 31 July itself recorded at 33.4°C in the July climate table.[2]

That makes a 0% Yes price easier to read as a reflection of the narrow settlement band rather than a view that heat is impossible. Guangzhou’s July climate is hot and humid, but the historical record also shows plenty of days that finish around 33°C instead of pushing into the upper 30s°C, and the city’s all-time record high is 37.7°C, not an everyday outcome.[3][15] For this market, the relevant comparison is not simply “hot city in summer”, but whether a single-day airport maximum lands inside the exact Celsius range used for resolution.

The main catalysts are the observed daytime temperature trend at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport and any late-morning or afternoon convective showers that could cap the maximum before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. Wunderground’s daily history page for ZGGG is the resolution source, so traders should watch how the airport’s hourly readings evolve through the local afternoon rather than relying on citywide forecasts alone.[9] Persistent cloud cover, rain bands, or a sudden clear-sky surge in the early afternoon would matter more than overnight lows, because only the day’s highest recorded temperature counts.[1][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.