Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 10 July 2026, the market resolves to the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, with the crowd currently assigning zero probability to any outcome above the implied threshold. This near-total dismissal contradicts Guangzhou’s established climatic form: July is the city’s hottest month, with daily highs averaging 33°C (91°F) and frequently reaching 39°C (102°F) during peak heatwaves[2][4]. Historical data confirms that temperatures rarely dip below 30°C (86°F) in mid-July, and the highest daily average high occurs on 25 July at 33°C, making a 0% YES probability for any meaningful heat range statistically anomalous[1][9].

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s real-time updates for the Baiyun station, as resolution depends exclusively on this source’s 24-hour maximum[7]. Recent national records show China experienced its hottest July on record since 1961, with sustained high-pressure systems driving temperatures well above seasonal norms[5]. While no specific weather alerts have been issued for 10 July yet, the absence of thunderstorm activity (which currently cools the air to 26°C lows) suggests clear skies will amplify daytime heating[9]. The key catalyst is the 12:00 UTC settlement deadline; any sudden cloud cover or rain before then could alter the peak, but current forecasts indicate few clouds and 34°C highs[9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.