Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou on 1 July 2026 will see its peak temperature recorded at the Baiyun International Airport, with the market currently pricing a sub-30°C outcome at zero probability. This reflects the city’s entrenched summer reality: July is consistently one of the hottest months, with daily highs averaging 33°C (91°F) and rarely dipping below 29°C (84°F)[1][5]. Historical data reinforces this baseline—on 1 July 2004, Guangzhou hit its all-time record of 39.1°C, precisely on the settlement date[3]. Recent national trends also point upward, as China experienced its hottest July on record in 2024, with average temperatures eclipsing previous highs since 1961[2][6].

Traders should monitor real-time Wunderground updates for the Baiyun station, as cloud cover or rainfall could temporarily suppress peaks, though such dips remain uncommon in early July[4][8]. The primary catalyst is the absence of significant weather disruptions: no major typhoons or cold fronts are forecast for the region in the coming days, per recent climate bulletins from China Daily[2]. Additionally, humidity levels averaging 82% and minimal wind will likely sustain high temperatures throughout the day[5]. With no injuries or suspensions affecting local meteorological monitoring infrastructure, the data stream remains reliable, making the 0% YES probability a rational reflection of Guangzhou’s predictable thermal profile.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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