Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou's August heat will determine whether the highest temperature recorded at Baiyun International Airport on 17 August 2026 falls within a specified range. The resolution hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, meaning intraday peak readings take precedence over rounded daily highs.

Historical August data from Guangzhou shows consistent patterns. Between 2015 and 2024, the airport station recorded August highs ranging from 32°C to 36°C, with most years clustering between 33°C and 35°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either an unusually cool day or scepticism about the specific temperature bracket in question. August 17 falls within Guangzhou's peak summer window, when subtropical monsoon influence and urban heat effects typically drive afternoon temperatures into the mid-30s Celsius range.

Traders should monitor tropical cyclone activity across the South China Sea in early August 2026, as storm systems can suppress temperatures significantly. Cloud cover and precipitation patterns in the two weeks preceding August 17 will signal whether conditions favour typical summer heat or anomalous cooling. The exact temperature thresholds defining each resolution bracket remain critical—a market resolving on whether the high exceeds 35°C differs materially from one testing the 33–34°C band. Weather Underground's station data occasionally diverges from other meteorological sources during extreme events, so confirmation of their specific measurement protocols matters for settlement certainty.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.