Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport is set up for a **very warm** day, and the market settles on the highest Celsius reading in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table rather than the headline high. AccuWeather is already pointing to a forecast peak of **100°F/38°C** with intense heat through the afternoon, while other forecast services cluster around **36–37°C**, which leaves the main uncertainty not at the broad range but at whether the airport station tops out in the mid-30s or pushes a little higher.[1][2][5][9][12][16]

For traders, the key historical cue is that Guangzhou in August usually sits in the high-20s to low-30s Celsius, with humidity and frequent cloud cover, but it can still run well above the seasonal average when sunshine breaks through.[6][10] That makes the current 0% YES price look anchored to a narrow reading of what is likely an above-normal but not extreme outcome, rather than to the full set of nearby forecasts; the comparable case is a hot, humid summer day where the airport observation can easily differ from city-wide or app-based headline temperatures.[3][7][8]

The immediate catalyst is the live observation stream at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, because the settlement source is the Daily Observations table and the decisive print can arrive later than the early-morning snapshot. Weather Underground was already showing **97°/83°** at 8:00 AM CST, and if the day follows the published hourly profile from other forecasters, the hottest reading should land in the early-to-mid afternoon.[3][1] Any shift in cloud cover, sea breeze, or convective showers would matter less than the exact station maximum recorded before the settlement window closes.[2][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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