Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Dallas on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas is currently experiencing thunderstorms with temperatures hovering around 84°F, a stark contrast to the scorching heat typically expected in mid-July. This market asks for the peak temperature recorded at Dallas Love Field on 16 July 2026, yet the crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for any outcome, suggesting traders believe the event has already passed without the requisite heat or that the date is effectively in the past relative to the settlement window. Given today is 17 July 2026, the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on 16 July means the market is technically closed for trading, and the resolution depends entirely on the historical record from Wunderground for that specific day.

Historical data for Dallas in mid-July usually sees highs exceeding 95°F, with records often climbing above 100°F during heatwaves; however, the current 0% probability implies the recorded temperature for 16 July fell outside all defined ranges or the market structure contains a flaw regarding the settlement timing. Comparable cases from recent years show that even during active thunderstorm periods, daytime peaks frequently breach 90°F, making a total absence of a valid range unusual unless the station recorded a temperature below the market's minimum threshold or the data source failed to register a value.

Traders should monitor the official Wunderground archive for KDAL immediately to confirm the exact figure, as the resolution source is fixed and no further announcements will alter the outcome. With the settlement window already closed, the only catalyst is the publication of the verified daily history, which will determine the final resolution regardless of current weather conditions. Any discrepancy between the live AccuWeather reading and the historical Wunderground record for the previous day will be the sole determinant, rendering real-time forecasts irrelevant at this stage.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Dallas on July 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.