Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Dallas on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas’ highest temperature on 9 August is a late-summer heat reading, and the market is settled from Weather Underground’s Daily Observations for Dallas Love Field, not the headline high/low summary. On comparable hot August days, the city typically posts highs close to the upper 90s or around 100°F, with the National Weather Service giving a 97°F normal maximum for 9 August at nearby DFW and recent Dallas forecasts clustering around 99–101°F. That context makes a 0% YES price hard to reconcile with the climatology unless the resolution source shows an unusually cool day.[4][2][11]

The more important trader watchpoint is which station record and which final observation Weather Underground actually uses at Dallas Love Field, because this market resolves off the highest observed value in that table, not the “Day High & Low” summary. Weather Underground’s historical page for 9 August 2026 is the key source, and the contract language indicates revisions are only relevant until the first datapoint for the following day is published.[8][3][15] As of the latest available reporting, Dallas was still running hot, with WeatherSpark showing 96.1°F late on the evening of 9 August and the National Weather Service posting fair conditions with an 81°F reading at DFW early on 9 August, which suggests the day remained well above normal before final settlement data locked in.[1][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Dallas on August 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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