Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing will experience peak summer heat on 27 July 2026, with the highest temperature recorded at Jiangbei International Airport Station determining the settlement outcome. The city sits in the Yangtze River valley and ranks amongst China's hottest urban centres during mid-to-late July, when subtropical high-pressure systems dominate the region. Historical data from the past decade shows July temperatures at this station consistently exceed 35°C, with peaks regularly reaching 37–39°C during the most intense heat waves.

The 0% crowd probability reflects either a technical issue with market display or an absence of trader activity rather than genuine conviction that temperatures will fall outside all available ranges. Chongqing's July climatology is exceptionally stable; the station has recorded only three days below 30°C in July across the past fifteen years, making extreme cold scenarios implausible. Comparable years—particularly the 2013 and 2017 heat waves—saw sustained peaks of 38–40°C throughout the month, establishing a baseline expectation for late-July conditions.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early July 2026, which typically provide reliable 10–14 day outlooks for regional temperature extremes. Any unusual atmospheric patterns—such as tropical cyclone activity or anomalous monsoon positioning—could suppress temperatures, though such deviations remain statistically uncommon for this period. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 27 July, allowing traders to incorporate morning weather data before final resolution against Wunderground's historical records.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 27?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.