Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing on 2 July 2026 will see its peak temperature recorded at the Jiangbei International Airport Station, with the market currently pricing a YES outcome at 0% despite July being the city’s hottest month. Historical data confirms Chongqing routinely hits extreme highs in early summer, often reaching 43–44°C due to high humidity and the urban heat island effect, making the current 0% probability appear starkly misaligned with climate reality[1][3]. Traders should note that July 1 already showed a 41% market-implied chance of exceeding 30°C, suggesting the current pricing ignores the region’s consistent thermal trajectory[6].

The primary catalyst for this market is the daily Wunderground temperature report, which will settle the outcome at 12:00 UTC on 2 July. No weather forecasts or official announcements are expected to alter the record, as the resolution relies solely on the observed maximum temperature for that day[2]. Recent climate summaries confirm that Chongqing’s daytime averages in July hover near 28.7°C, with peaks frequently surpassing 35°C and occasionally reaching 43°C, reinforcing that a 0% YES probability contradicts decades of seasonal patterns[3][4]. Traders must monitor the live Wunderground feed as the sole dependency, with no external variables influencing the final resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 2?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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