Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing is set to experience its peak summer heat as the city approaches the annual high-temperature record for mid-July, with the Jiangbei International Airport station serving as the official benchmark. The market currently implies a zero per cent chance of the temperature exceeding the highest threshold offered, suggesting the crowd expects conditions to remain within the lower bands of the forecast range. This stark probability reflects the region’s typical thermal behaviour during this period, where extreme heat is common but rarely breaches the uppermost limits set by recent decades.

Historical data from the past two weeks shows temperatures hovering around 84 °F (approximately 29 °C) under sunny conditions, consistent with Chongqing’s reputation as one of China’s “Four Furnaces” [1]. Comparable July 17 readings in recent years have frequently reached 38–40 °C, yet the current 0% YES probability indicates traders believe the market’s highest bracket is set well above likely outcomes. This divergence may stem from a lack of extreme heatwave alerts or a consensus that atmospheric pressure patterns will moderate peak temperatures.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground’s daily history page for the Jiangbei station, as resolution depends solely on the highest recorded Celsius value on 17 July 2026 [1]. Any sudden shift in regional weather forecasts, particularly from the China Meteorological Administration regarding heatwave warnings, could act as a catalyst for probability movement. With the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on 17 July, the final temperature reading will be locked in by early afternoon, leaving little room for late-day volatility.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

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What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

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How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.