Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing’s highest temperature on 10 August will be judged against the **Daily Observations** table for Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, so the market is really about the day’s observed peak rather than the headline summary. The crowd has the favoured band around **34–35°C**, which matches recent forecast guidance pointing to a hot afternoon under a subtropical ridge, with AccuWeather showing a forecast high of **95°F/35°C** and a similar 10-day picture for early August conditions.[2][12][16]

Historically, August is the hottest month in Chongqing, with typical maximums in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius and occasional spikes much higher. Climate references put the August average maximum around **33.6–35°C**, while heatwave days can climb into the high 30s or low 40s, so a result in the 34–35°C range is more consistent with normal peak-summer heat than with an extreme event.[3][6][8][18] That makes the current **0% YES** framing look detached from local climatology unless the market’s temperature bands are very narrowly defined.

For traders, the main catalysts are any late changes in the local forecast, especially thunderstorm timing, cloud cover, or rain that can cap the daily maximum. AccuWeather’s short-range forecast already flags **a couple of thunderstorms, especially early in the day**, but the key question is whether the afternoon still warms enough to reach the upper-30s to mid-30s band before any convective cooling arrives.[12][16] Because the market settles from station observations, the final print can still move on the day if showers arrive earlier or later than expected, or if the airport station reads a different peak from city-wide forecasts.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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