Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chicago on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chicago O’Hare recorded a peak of 82°F on 16 July 2026, with sunny skies and 50% humidity, yet the market for the previous day’s high temperature on 15 July shows zero probability for any outcome below 90°F. This reflects the crowd’s expectation that mid-July highs in Chicago routinely exceed 90°F, with the frontrunner at 94–95°F (47%) and 96–97°F at 35%, indicating a tight distribution around the upper 90s rather than extreme heat or cool anomalies [1].

Historical July highs at KORD typically cluster between 90°F and 98°F, with 94–95°F being the most frequent range over the past decade, making the current 0% probability for lower ranges a clear mispricing if traders assume normal seasonal form. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 15 July 2026, so the market is already resolved; traders should verify Wunderground’s official daily record for KORD to confirm the actual peak, as discrepancies between real-time sensors and the archived daily maximum can shift outcomes [1].

Watch for Wunderground’s final daily update for KORD, which is the sole resolution source, and monitor any late corrections to the archived temperature if initial reporting was delayed. No weather announcements or forecasts will alter the outcome now, but traders should confirm the exact Fahrenheit value recorded at all times on 15 July, as even a 1°F difference can shift the market from 94–95°F to 96–97°F [1].

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chicago on July 15?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.