Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s highest temperature on 31 July will hinge on how much the heat can build before cloud and rain interfere. The market is settled from the day’s maximum at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, so the key number is the afternoon high, not the evening cooling-off. Short-range forecasts are clustered in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius: BBC Weather shows 24°C at observation time, YR.no puts Wednesday’s maximum at 33°C, and Ventusky peaks around 37°C in the mid-afternoon before easing later.[3][2][12]

The historical frame points to a warm, humid midsummer day rather than an extreme outlier. Chengdu’s July climate is typically hot and wet, with averages around the high 20s to low 30s Celsius and frequent rain; several seasonal guides also note that individual July days can still reach the upper 30s.[14][19][15] That makes a 0% yes price vulnerable if traders are reading it as a zero-temperature outcome rather than a low-likelihood bucket, because the available forecasts already sit comfortably inside the settlement ranges most likely to matter.[1][5][15]

The main catalysts are the afternoon forecast updates, any shift in shower timing, and the airport station’s observed high as the day develops. AccuWeather and Met Office both flag thunderstorms or rain risk in Chengdu this period, while model runs also show weakening cloud cover and then renewed convection later in the day, a pattern that can cap the maximum if it arrives early enough.[13][9][8] Traders will also be watching whether the airport station tracks the wider city forecast closely or prints a slightly lower reading under cloud and precipitation.[10][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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