Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu faces its peak summer heat on 17 July 2026, with the settlement depending on the highest temperature recorded at Shuangliu International Airport. The city’s hottest period spans July to August, when rainfall concentrates and temperatures routinely climb, making extreme heat a seasonal norm rather than an anomaly [1]. This climatic pattern underpins the 83% YES probability, as historical data shows July consistently delivers the year’s highest readings.

Comparable cases from recent summers indicate that temperatures in Chengdu during mid-July frequently exceed 35°C, with several days reaching 37–39°C. The 83% implied probability aligns with this trend, suggesting the market expects the day’s peak to fall within a high range, likely above 35°C. Traders should note that while humidity and cloud cover from July rainfall can moderate peaks, the airport station’s open exposure often captures the day’s true maximum.

Key catalysts include overnight weather model updates from Wunderground and any sudden shifts in cloud cover or precipitation forecasts for the region. Since the resolution source is fixed to Wunderground’s daily history for ZUUU, traders must monitor real-time temperature feeds as the day progresses, particularly between 10:00 and 16:00 local time when peaks typically occur. No major weather announcements are expected, but rapid changes in monsoon activity could alter the final reading.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.