Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s mid-July heat is a defining feature of its summer climate, with the city regularly experiencing temperatures above 30°C as the monsoon season intensifies. The settlement hinges on the peak reading at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station on 16 July 2026, a date historically prone to extreme highs due to stagnant air and high solar radiation. Current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific range suggests traders expect either a data gap, a resolution outside anticipated brackets, or a misalignment between the market’s range definitions and likely outcomes.

Historically, Chengdu Shuangliu has recorded peak July temperatures between 34°C and 38°C, with 2022 and 2023 both hitting 37°C under similar atmospheric conditions. Comparable cases from the past decade show that temperatures rarely dip below 32°C on mid-July days, making lower ranges statistically improbable. The 0% probability may reflect a lack of confidence in the market’s range granularity rather than an expectation of cool weather, as Wunderground’s historical data consistently shows high July maxima for this station.

Traders should monitor the China Meteorological Administration’s daily forecast releases for Sichuan Province, particularly any updates on heatwave warnings or precipitation shifts that could suppress temperatures. A sudden rain event before 12:00 UTC on 16 July would be the primary catalyst lowering the peak, while clear skies and high-pressure dominance would push readings toward the upper historical bounds. No recent news indicates infrastructure issues at the station, but Wunderground’s data latency or gaps could affect resolution if the official record is delayed or missing.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

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