Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu is entering its peak summer heatwave, with July consistently delivering the city’s highest temperatures as the middle ten days of the month typically see peaks between 28–30°C and frequent spikes above 35°C[2][3]. Historical climatology for mid-July centres on 30–32°C averages, though extreme days have previously breached 38°C, with the city’s hottest recorded day hitting 38.6°C in August 2022[1][9]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES for any temperature outcome suggests a significant mispricing, as the leading market outcome is 38°C at 34%, followed closely by 37°C at 28%, indicating traders expect a severe heat event rather than the absence of one[1].

Traders should monitor real-time Wunderground readings for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station (ZUUU) as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC today, with the market having already correctly resolved a 37°C high on 6 July 2026[1][10]. Recent past weather data shows yesterday’s maximum reached 91°F (32.8°C), confirming the region is already operating near the upper threshold of typical July highs[4]. The primary catalyst is the immediate hourly temperature feed from Wunderground, which will determine the final resolution; any sudden spike above 35°C in the next few hours would validate the 37–38°C outcomes currently favoured by the market[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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