Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s temperature on 9 August is usually a **late-summer heat** market rather than a true outlier event. Long-run August averages sit near 30°C for highs, and the date-specific history shows 9 August typically landing around 30.4°C with a record high of 38.1°C, so the distribution is heavily skewed towards the upper 20s and low 30s rather than cooler bands.[1][16]

That backdrop makes a 0% crowd-implied YES on a specific temperature range look like a statement about the market’s current pricing rather than the underlying climate. Chengdu has posted extreme August heat before, including 39°C in August 2022, but the more common outcome is a mid-30s cap or lower, especially when clouds, rainfall or weaker sunshine interrupt daytime heating.[11][16] If the station follows the usual pattern seen in past Augusts, the highest value in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table should still cluster well above the cooler ranges that are effectively being priced out.[4][5]

The main trader focus is the intraday observation path at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, because this market resolves from the **Daily Observations** table rather than the summary high/low box.[4] That means late-morning warmth, afternoon peak timing, and any sudden rain or cloud build-out matter more than headline forecast numbers; Weather Underground’s history page already shows a 79°F reading by 9:00 AM at the airport station, leaving scope for a higher midday maximum if heating continues.[5] The practical dependency is whether the airport site logs a peak in the relevant Celsius band before the settlement window closes, not whether the broader city forecast looks hot.[4][20]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.