Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu's highest temperature on 11 August 2026 will be measured at Shuangliu International Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that peak reading in degrees Celsius, with the Daily Observations data taking precedence over any summary figures if discrepancies arise.

August in Chengdu typically sees daily highs between 28–35°C, though extremes above 37°C have occurred during heat waves. Historical August records for the city show that temperatures exceeding 40°C are rare but not unprecedented; the 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the market's upper thresholds to sit well below such outliers. Comparable August days at Shuangliu station over the past decade provide the baseline: most settle in the 30–34°C range, with occasional spikes into the mid-to-high 30s during high-pressure systems.

The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 11 August 2026, meaning traders must account for the full calendar day's temperature progression at the airport station. Chengdu's location in Sichuan province subjects it to monsoon influences and occasional cold fronts that can suppress August peaks, though sustained heat domes are equally plausible. No scheduled weather alerts or anomalies have been flagged for that specific date; traders should monitor seasonal forecasts from late July onwards and track any El Niño or La Niña patterns that might shift regional temperature regimes heading into mid-August 2026.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.