Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Busan on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Busan’s highest temperature for 10 August is being set at Gimhae Intl Airport Station, using Weather Underground’s Daily Observations rather than the site’s headline day-high figure. That distinction matters because the market is not tied to the rounded forecast or summary card: the settlement will follow the warmest observed reading in the station log, which can differ from the public-facing daily high when values are updated, delayed or rounded differently.[4]

The current 0% YES price sits well below what Busan’s early-August climate usually produces. Climate references put August highs around the high-20s to low-30s Celsius, with Busan’s August average high near 29–30°C and typical maxima around 30–31°C, while one historical climate table lists 10 August’s record high at 34.6°C, showing that mid-30s is possible but not the norm.[5][7][16] The market’s current leader at 30°C, with 31°C close behind, is consistent with that seasonal baseline rather than with the extreme heat seen elsewhere in South Korea earlier in the month.[4][18]

For traders, the main catalysts are the live observation sequence at Gimhae Airport, any late-morning convective cloud or rain bands, and whether sea-breeze effects cap the afternoon peak before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. Forecasts for Busan on 10 August pointed to thunderstorms early, then cloud and a brightening sky, with a forecast high around 83–86°F, which translates to roughly 28–30°C and leaves the key probability mass in the 29–31°C band unless the day runs hotter than expected.[10][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Busan on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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