Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Beijing on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 9 July 2026, the Beijing Capital International Airport Station will record its peak temperature for the day, a figure that determines the outcome of this prediction market. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a specific high suggests traders believe conditions will not align with the targeted range, likely due to an incoming cold front or monsoonal trough suppressing daily highs into the 28°C to 30°C bracket[2].

Historically, July is Beijing’s hottest month, with average highs at the airport reaching 87°F (30.6°C) and summer averages regularly hitting 30°C (86°F), often climbing higher on extreme days[3][5]. Recent data confirms this trend; on 6 July, the southern suburb observatory recorded 40.1°C (104.2°F), while the airport’s July 2026 forecast anticipates daily highs between 84°F and 91°F (29°C–33°C)[4][6]. The 0% probability implies a deviation from these norms, possibly driven by the forecasted weather suppression mentioned in recent lines[2].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the official daily high, as the resolution source relies exclusively on this data for the airport station[2]. Key catalysts include the timing and intensity of the cold front moving through North China on 9 or 10 July, which could significantly lower temperatures below the typical summer range[2]. Any sudden shifts in monsoonal activity or unexpected cloud cover will be critical, as these factors directly influence whether the peak temperature falls within the contested range or remains suppressed.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Beijing on July 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.