Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Beijing on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing faces its peak summer heat on 13 July 2026, with the Beijing Capital International Airport Station expected to record temperatures well into the 30s Celsius. Historical data confirms July is the city’s hottest month, where daily highs typically average 31°C (88°F) but frequently surge above 36°C during heatwaves [3]. Extreme events have pushed readings past 40°C, including a 40°C peak in July 2023 and an all-time record of 41.9°C set on 24 July 1999 [1][4]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for any specific range suggests traders are either misreading the market’s binary nature or betting on a specific cool outlier, yet the statistical baseline for mid-July Beijing strongly favours high temperatures rather than the cool extremes that would invalidate most ranges.

Traders must monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, as heatwave intensity fluctuates rapidly with humidity and wind patterns [1]. Recent meteorological reports indicate northern China is prone to returning heatwaves that can spike temperatures by several degrees within hours, similar to the June 2023 event where Beijing soared to 41.1°C [2]. Key catalysts include official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and hourly Wunderground logs for the ZBAA station, which will determine the final settlement value [10]. Any sudden shift in cloud cover or rainfall, common in Beijing’s rainy July climate, could act as the primary variable moving the line away from the expected high-temperature clusters.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Beijing on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.