Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Beijing on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing is entering its peak summer heatwave, with July consistently delivering the city’s highest temperatures and frequent humidity spikes that push daily highs well above 30°C. The market asks whether the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport on 11 July 2026 will fall into a specific range, yet the crowd-implied probability sits at 0% YES, suggesting traders expect the peak to land outside the offered bracket.

Historical data frames this improbability: July in Beijing typically sees daily highs around 31°C (88°F), rarely dropping below 26°C (78°F) or exceeding 36°C (96°F), with the all-time record of 41.9°C struck on 24 July 1999 [2][3]. In 2023, temperatures reached 40°C during the month, confirming that extreme heat is possible but usually peaks later in July or during specific heatwave events rather than on the 11th [1]. The 0% probability likely reflects a mismatch between the market’s range and the statistically probable peak for this specific date.

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s daily updates for ZBAA on 11 July, as resolution hinges solely on the highest temperature recorded there [source]. Watch for official heatwave advisories from Chinese meteorological authorities, which often precede record-breaking days, and track any sudden shifts in cloud cover or rain that could suppress temperatures below the range [2]. Recent forecasts for July 2026 indicate highs between 28°C and 37°C (82°–99°F), with the average high at 32°C (89°F), providing a concrete benchmark against which the market’s range can be tested [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Beijing on July 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.