Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Beijing on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s highest temperature will be decided by the **daily observations** at Beijing Capital International Airport, not the summary high, so the key question is whether the day’s peak lands in the high-20s, low-30s or above. Recent history suggests August in Beijing usually sits around the low 30s Celsius: one August guide puts the average high at 30.6°C and another at about 31°C, while Weather Underground’s own history page shows the airport station reporting 28.6°C on 8 August 2025 as the day’s maximum.[3][6][15][17]

That framing helps explain why a **0% yes price** looks extreme unless the market’s temperature band is very high. Beijing’s August records are well above the seasonal norm, with one source citing an extreme high of 38°C in 2022 and others showing typical August highs clustered around 30–33°C.[8][9][13] The recent run-up matters too: past weather pages for early August 2026 show Beijing already running warm, with one report putting the high on 7 August at 37°C and another showing 86°F around midday on 8 August, though the final settlement reading depends on the airport station’s highest observation rather than a citywide average.[1][11][14]

For traders, the main catalysts are the **station’s afternoon temperature curve**, any late cloud cover or rain, and whether the airport briefly spikes before easing. Weather Underground’s Beijing history page is the relevant live source for the settlement source, while other trackers such as timeanddate and weather services can help gauge the broader setup, but they do not control resolution.[1][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Beijing on August 8?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.