Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Beijing on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's maximum temperature on 12 August 2026 will be measured at Capital International Airport Station and resolved against the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground, with settlement occurring at midday UTC on that date. The market currently shows zero probability assigned to any outcome, suggesting either minimal trading activity or genuine uncertainty about which temperature band will materialise.

August represents peak summer in Beijing, with historical daily highs typically ranging between 29–32°C during this period. The city's continental climate produces substantial day-to-day variation depending on monsoon influence and pressure systems; the 30-year average high for mid-August sits around 30°C, though readings have exceeded 35°C in anomalous years. Recent summers have shown increasing frequency of extreme heat events across northern China, with 2023 and 2024 recording multiple days above 34°C during comparable windows. These patterns suggest traders should weight higher temperature bands more heavily than climatological norms alone would indicate.

The primary variable affecting 12 August's reading will be the position and intensity of the Pacific subtropical high-pressure system in early August 2026. Forecasters typically gain reliable predictive skill for temperature ranges only 10–14 days ahead; traders should monitor mid-August weather models released around 28 July onwards for signals of heat dome development or cooler frontal passages. Any significant drought conditions across northern China in the preceding weeks would increase the likelihood of sustained high temperatures, whilst unusual tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific could introduce cooler, wetter conditions that suppress the daily maximum.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Beijing on August 12?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.