Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Beijing on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing Capital International Airport is the key reference point for this market, and the relevant question is the day’s **highest observed temperature** in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table, not the headline high in the summary box. In practical terms, that means traders are watching whether the airport clears the low-30s °C band that is typical for August, with recent climate guides putting Beijing’s August daytime highs around 30–31°C and individual early-August days often reaching 33–35°C.[2][4][5][6]

Historical comparables suggest that a 0% YES price is extremely sensitive to what the contract’s temperature bands are. The airport’s own Weather Underground history shows a recent August 10 high of 95°F in the record range and an average high around 88°F, while broader Beijing August datasets repeatedly centre on highs near 31°C and show occasional spikes above 33°C.[8][4][13][14] That makes sub-30°C bands far less likely than the market price implies, whereas 31–33°C bands sit closer to the month’s norm and to the kind of midday peak Beijing often prints in settled summer conditions.[2][5][20]

The main catalysts are the hourly observation path at the airport and any late-shift cloud, rain, or wind changes that cap the daytime maximum before the settlement window closes. Weather Underground’s airport history page is the resolving source, so a brief morning start does not matter unless the table later posts a higher value; traders should therefore track the actual observed sequence through the afternoon rather than forecasts alone.[8][19] Current forecasts for Beijing on 10 August point to a sunny, warm day near 91°F/33°C, which is consistent with a meaningful upside tail if the airport station runs as warm as model guidance suggests.[16][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Beijing on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

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What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

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