Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Atlanta on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Atlanta’s highest temperature on 1 August 2026 will be set by the Hartsfield-Jackson airport reading, and the market is really a bet on whether the afternoon peak lands in the low, mid or upper 80s Fahrenheit. Atlanta’s early-August climatology is firmly hot: the city’s long-run average high for 1 August is 89.6°F, with a record high for the date of 99°F, while broader August records in the city have reached 104°F, showing that extreme heat is possible but not the norm.[1]

That makes a 0% yes price easier to read as a statement about distribution, not certainty. Seasonal comparisons point to a centre of mass in the upper 80s to low 90s, but the actual daily maximum can be dragged down by cloud cover, humidity, or afternoon convection, all of which are common in Atlanta’s summer pattern.[3][10] Recent market commentary has also clustered around an 84–87°F outcome, with traders split across the mid-80s bands rather than pricing any one bucket as dominant.[2]

For traders, the key catalysts are the final forecast updates, the timing of any late-day thunderstorms, and whether cloud cover arrives before the day’s peak heating window. A higher ceiling requires sustained sunshine and limited rain interference; a lower outcome becomes more likely if showers or thicker clouds develop near midday or early afternoon. The settlement source is Weather Underground’s KATL daily history page, so the number that matters is the highest airport station reading before the next day’s first datapoint is published.[2][18]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Atlanta on August 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.