Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam Airport Schiphol’s top temperature on 31 July will be set by the day’s peak reading at the airport station, not by city-centre conditions, so the market is really about whether Schiphol gets a brief warm surge rather than just an average warm afternoon. Amsterdam’s July climate is usually mild, with typical highs around 22°C, but the city has posted much hotter extremes in past summers, including 36.4°C in July 2019 and 35.8°C on 1 July 2025, showing that high-30s outcomes are rare but not unprecedented.[13][15]

That history matters because a 0% crowd price implies the market is treating a very hot result as remote, yet late-July warmth in Amsterdam can still produce low- to mid-20s readings quite easily. Comparable recent daily weather expectations for Amsterdam have sat around 26°C to 28°C highs, while the broad July climatology suggests 22°C is closer to normal than anything extreme.[3][8][12] In other words, the distribution is usually anchored around the low 20s, with only occasional spikes much higher when continental heat builds over the Netherlands.[10][13]

Traders should watch the immediate setup at Schiphol, especially any afternoon sunshine, wind direction, and thunderstorm risk, because the market settles on the single highest reading before 12:00 UTC. Today’s local forecast calls for a warm day around 26°C with a chance of drizzle and a breezy south-westerly flow, which supports a moderate rather than scorching outcome.[3] The main dependency is whether clouds or showers cap the peak early; if the warmest hour has already passed by the settlement window, the remaining upside narrows further.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.