Pronóstico: Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Platform comparison

Market context

Global temperatures in 2026 are tracking as a top-tier heat year, yet natural ocean cooling and an ongoing La Niña event suggest it will likely fall just outside the top three hottest records. The World Meteorological Organization forecasts an 86% chance that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest ever, but Berkeley Earth specifically estimates 2026 will rank roughly fourth, with a 51% probability for that exact placement and only a 10% chance of taking first place [1][2]. This historical framing aligns with the current 34% crowd-implied probability for a top-three finish, as the market balances the likelihood of record-breaking monthly anomalies against the broader cooling trend expected to keep annual averages below 2023 and 2024 levels [2].

Traders must monitor the transition from La Niña to neutral or El Niño conditions, as a shift could rapidly alter the second-half temperature trajectory and push the annual rank higher. The EU Climate Service already noted January 2026 as the fifth-warmest January on record, while May 2026 posted the second-highest global surface temperature in 177 years, indicating significant volatility in monthly data that could compound into a higher annual rank [3][8]. Key dependencies include the release of full-year Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data, which typically becomes available in early 2027, and any unexpected revisions to 2024 or 2025 figures that could alter the ranking threshold for a top-three finish [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.