Pronóstico: # of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

MrBeast’s next full YouTube upload is the event that will set this market, and the current 0% YES price is only rational if traders think the eventual day-one view total will land outside the listed range or that the video will not arrive in time. Recent comparable markets around his first 24 hours have repeatedly clustered in the mid-20 millions to mid-30 millions, with one recent market on his next video at 30–35 million views on day one reaching 100% implied probability, while another analysis of recent uploads put the typical first-day band around 33 million to 45 million views.[1][4][5][7]

That historical backdrop matters because MrBeast’s channel has shown enough scale to keep almost every plausible outcome well above ordinary creator levels, but enough volatility that bracket choice still turns on title strength, topic size and timing. Polymarket’s own event rules say only the referenced next long-form upload counts, with Shorts and previews excluded, and the contract resolves off the first 24 hours of the official views counter on his channel.[2][5]

For traders, the key catalysts are simple: whether he posts at all before the August 31 fallback deadline, what the upload date and time are, and whether the video is another high-concept stunt or a more standard format that could cap initial reach. The market will not resolve early; it waits for the full 24-hour count, so a strong launch-time push, homepage placement and any external promotion in the first day are the variables most likely to move the bracket.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: # of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.