Pronóstico: US forces enter Venezuela again by 2026?

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Market context

Active US military personnel have already physically entered Venezuela’s terrestrial territory, culminating in a predawn raid on Caracas that captured President Nicolás Maduro on 3 January 2026. This event satisfies the market’s core condition, as special operations forces were deployed on the ground, not merely in maritime or aerial zones. The operation marked the end of a months-long buildup under Operation Southern Spear, which included strikes on Venezuelan air infrastructure and the seizure of sanctioned oil tankers[1][2].

Historically, such direct incursions by US forces into sovereign Latin American states have been rare since the Cold War, making this case a definitive precedent rather than a speculative scenario. Comparable cases, like the 1989 invasion of Panama, involved clear ground deployment and regime change, aligning closely with the current outcome where Maduro was extracted and the US announced it would “run” Venezuela pending transition[1]. The 95% crowd-implied probability reflects this settled reality, not a future possibility.

Traders should monitor follow-up announcements regarding the US occupation timeline, the status of Maduro’s government, and any new military exercises in the region, such as the rapid response drill involving Marines in Caracas conducted four months post-ouster[4]. Recent reports confirm the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group remains in the Caribbean, sustaining pressure and enabling further ground operations if needed[5][6]. No further ground entry is required for the market to resolve as “Yes,” but ongoing activity may shape settlement details.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.