Pronóstico: Clacton by-election: 2nd place

Platform comparison

Market context

Nigel Farage’s resignation has triggered a Clacton by-election that is expected to be held on 13 August, and the market here is about who finishes second, not who wins. Reform are still heavily favoured to hold the seat itself, with recent projections putting Farage well clear of the field, which is why the implied price for a non-Reform runner taking second remains low overall.[1][8][12]

The clearest historical frame is that Clacton was already a strong Reform seat at the 2024 general election, when Farage won it with 21,225 votes, or 46.2%.[4] That baseline matters because second place can shift sharply in a low-turnout by-election, where protest votes and tactical voting often matter more than party loyalty. Recent market and projection snapshots have repeatedly put Count Binface ahead of the conventional parties for second, while the Conservatives remain the likeliest mainstream challenger but on a much weaker vote share than Reform.[2][3][6][10]

For traders, the key catalysts are the final candidate list, any withdrawals or endorsements, and how the campaign distributes attention among the large field; reports have put the number of candidates at 34, which makes vote-splitting material for the runner-up race.[12][18][19] Recent polling-style projections and betting boards still show Count Binface as the market leader for second place, with the Conservatives, Restore Britain and the Greens next in line, so any late swing in anti-Reform tactical voting or novelty-candidate visibility could move the line quickly.[1][2][3][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Clacton by-election: 2nd place. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.