Pronóstico: US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by 2026?

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Market context

The US government is actively weighing a high-risk military operation to seize Iran’s stockpile of approximately 440kg of uranium enriched to 60%, a move President Trump has framed as essential to halting the regime’s nuclear weapon development. While Trump has publicly stated the US will not permit Iran to retain this material, Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei has issued a direct order forbidding any export, creating a deadlock in negotiations that has pushed the issue to future negotiation phases. Experts warn that physically extracting the uranium would require ground forces, heavy machinery to clear underground tunnels, and likely counterattacks from Iran, making the operation far more complex than other current military objectives.

Historically, comparable cases of state seizure of nuclear materials—such as the 1981 Israeli raid on Iraq’s Osirak reactor or the 2007 US capture of Iraqi nuclear facilities—involved clear intelligence, overwhelming force, and minimal diplomatic resistance, none of which currently apply to the Iran scenario. The current 0% crowd-implied probability reflects the stark reality that Iran’s leadership has explicitly refused to surrender the stockpile, negotiations are stalled, and the US has not yet reached a definitive conclusion on launching an operation. Traders should monitor any sudden shifts in Trump’s public stance, announcements of US troop deployments to the Middle East (particularly the 82nd Airborne), or reports of Israeli assurances regarding uranium removal, as these would be the only credible catalysts to alter the settlement outlook before the December 2026 deadline [1][2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by 2026? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

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On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

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