Pronóstico: Trump out as President by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump remains in office with the crowd-implied probability of his resignation or removal by July 31, 2026, sitting at just 1%. This low figure reflects the structural reality that permanent removal requires a two-thirds majority vote in both congressional chambers, a threshold historically unattainable when the president’s party retains control of the House. Comparable cases, such as the failed impeachment of Andrew Johnson or the resignation of Richard Nixon under distinct pressures, show that removal rarely occurs without a catastrophic, bipartisan collapse of support. Even during Trump’s first term, impeachment resolutions passed the House but stalled in the Senate, underscoring how party loyalty and procedural hurdles shield presidents from ouster unless extraordinary circumstances align.

Traders should monitor the November 2026 midterm elections, as Trump himself has warned that losing Congress could trigger impeachment efforts [3]. The immediate catalyst is whether Republicans retain the House majority; if Democrats win control, the probability of removal rises sharply, with Kalshi estimating impeachment chances near 28.7% following recent escalations [2]. Additional dependencies include any invocation of the 25th Amendment due to incapacity or the emergence of new misconduct allegations, particularly after Trump’s recent threats regarding Iran prompted renewed Democratic calls for removal [4]. While no official confirmation exists for viral claims of imminent removal [1], the political line moves decisively on election outcomes and congressional composition.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Trump out as President by July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.