Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| China Open, Qualification: Robin Montgomery vs Maria Aran Teixido Garcia | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Robin Montgomery vs Maria Aran Teixido Garcia Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Robin Montgomery vs Maria Aran Teixido Garcia Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Robin Montgomery vs Maria Aran Teixido Garcia Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Robin Montgomery vs Maria Aran Teixido Garcia Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Robin Montgomery vs Maria Aran Teixido Garcia Game Spread +/-7.5 | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Robin Montgomery vs Maria Aran Teixido Garcia Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Robin Montgomery vs Maria Aran Teixido Garcia Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Robin Montgomery vs Maria Aran Teixido Garcia Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Robin Montgomery vs Maria Aran Teixido Garcia Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Robin Montgomery vs Maria Aran Teixido Garcia Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Robin Montgomery vs Maria Aran Teixido Garcia Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Robin Montgomery vs Maria Aran Teixido Garcia Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Robin Montgomery vs Maria Aran Teixido Garcia Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Robin Montgomery vs Maria Aran Teixido Garcia Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Robin Montgomery vs Maria Aran Teixido Garcia Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, pronóstico: china open, qualification: robin montgomery vs maria aran teixido garcia stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Robin Montgomery and Maria Aran Teixido Garcia in the China Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 3:30A…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: China Open, Qualification: Robin Montgomery vs Maria Aran Teixido Garcia. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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