Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Claire Liu vs Ipek Oz | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Claire Liu vs Ipek Oz Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Claire Liu vs Ipek Oz Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Claire Liu vs Ipek Oz Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Claire Liu vs Ipek Oz Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Claire Liu vs Ipek Oz Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Claire Liu vs Ipek Oz Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Claire Liu vs Ipek Oz Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Claire Liu vs Ipek Oz Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Claire Liu vs Ipek Oz Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Claire Liu vs Ipek Oz Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Claire Liu vs Ipek Oz Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Claire Liu vs Ipek Oz Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Claire Liu vs Ipek Oz Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Claire Liu and Ipek Oz are set to contest the final of the Iasi Open qualifying round on Court 6 in Romania, with Liu already holding a 6-3, 6-4 victory in their scheduled match-up as confirmed by live score trackers. The 100% YES crowd-implied probability reflects Liu’s decisive win in the qualifying final, meaning the market has effectively settled on her advancement before the theoretical start time of 6:30 AM ET. This outcome mirrors past WTA qualification scenarios where a player secures a straight-sets win in the final qualifying match, rendering the “who advances” market a certainty once the result is official.
Traders should monitor official WTA match logs and live score feeds for any post-match administrative changes, though the result is already recorded as Liu winning 6-3, 6-4. No injury announcements or line-up reversals have been reported since the match concluded, and both players’ 2026 singles records show Liu at 3-2 and Oz with no recent titles cited. The key dependency is the absence of a retirement or disqualification that would overturn the result, but given the match is listed as completed with a clear winner, such events are unlikely. Source: ESPN confirms Liu’s qualifying final win over Oz on July 13, 2026 [4].
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Iasi Open, Qualification: Claire Liu vs Ipek Oz. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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