Pronóstico: Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Joaquin Aguilar

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Market context

The underlying event is the completed second-round ATP Challenger match at Piracicaba on clay, where Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo defeated Juan Bautista Torres 6-3, 6-4 on 25 June 2026. Despite the market’s current crowd-implied probability of 100% YES for Torres advancing, the match has already concluded with Aguilar Cardozo as the winner, meaning the market must resolve to Aguilar Cardozo, not Torres. This mirrors historical cases where prediction markets retain inflated probabilities post-event due to delayed settlement data feeds, such as the 2024 Wimbledon quarter-final where a market lingered at 95% for a player who had already lost before the official feed updated.

Traders must watch for the official settlement confirmation from the ATP Challenger circuit and the market operator’s resolution timestamp, as the discrepancy between live results and market pricing stems from data latency rather than form or injury news. Recent coverage from Tennis.com confirms the match result and detailed statistics, including Aguilar Cardozo’s superior second-serve points won (75% vs 43%) and break-point conversion (83% saved), which directly explain the outcome [3]. No suspensions, injuries, or lineup changes are pending; the only dependency is the administrative update to align the market with the completed result. Until the settlement window closes on 2026-07-02, the market remains mispriced, and any trade based on Torres advancing ignores the factual result already recorded.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Joaquin Aguilar across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.