Pronóstico: Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

Platform comparison

Market context

This market hinges on the ATP singles match between Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Daniel Merida Aguilar at Wimbledon, scheduled to begin at 6:00 AM ET on 29 June 2026. Carabelli, currently ranked 57th after peaking at 43 in August 2025, holds a career win–loss record of 35–48 with no titles and has yet to secure a grass-court victory, having lost both his only grass matches to date[2][7][8]. His recent form shows a 12–14 record in 2026, including a second-round exit to Andrey Rublev at the French Open after beating Emilio Nava in the first round[1][9].

Historically, markets pricing a player at 0% YES when they face an opponent with superior grass experience or ranking often reflect a lack of credible data on the opponent rather than an absolute certainty of defeat; comparable cases in 2024–25 saw similar zero-probability tags overturned when under-ranked players advanced due to unreported injuries or fatigue in their opponents. Carabelli’s 0–2 grass record and 20% Grand Slam win rate suggest vulnerability, but the 0% price may stem from Merida Aguilar’s unverified status rather than Carabelli’s inability to win[2][8].

Traders must monitor the official Wimbledon draw confirmation and any pre-match injury reports for both players, as a cancellation or delay beyond seven days would reset the market to 50–50[5]. The ATP Tour’s live schedule confirms Carabelli is listed to play Merida at 11:40 UTC on 29 June, but no recent news has been published on Merida Aguilar’s fitness or ranking[5]. Until the ATP releases a formal player profile or injury update for Merida, the 0% probability remains a data gap rather than a definitive outcome[7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.