Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Borna Gojo | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Borna Gojo Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Borna Gojo Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Borna Gojo Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Borna Gojo Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Borna Gojo Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Borna Gojo Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Borna Gojo Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Borna Gojo Game Spread +/-1.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Borna Gojo Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Borna Gojo Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Borna Gojo Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Borna Gojo Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Borna Gojo Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Borna Gojo Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Yunchaokete Bu’s US Open qualifying match against Borna Gojo has already been played, and Bu won in straight sets, 6-4 6-4, in about 1 hour 20 minutes. That makes the current 100% YES price look consistent with a completed result rather than an unresolved live event.[1][14][15]
The historical read is straightforward: Bu entered as the higher-ranked player, with ATP listings around No. 120 to Gojo’s No. 161, and he had also beaten Rio Noguchi in the first qualifying round before facing Gojo.[1][2][15] Gojo likewise advanced through qualifying with a straight-sets win over Zdenek Kolar, but there is no sign here of a retirement, walkover, or cancellation risk that would push the market towards the 50-50 fallback.[2][6][11]
For traders, the main catalysts are procedural rather than performance-based: the official draw and schedule show this as a men’s singles qualifying match at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Centre, with the market’s settlement window running to 2 September and the fallback deadline to 9 September if no winner is recorded.[4][6][7] Any late official correction to the result, or an abnormal replay/void on the event feed, would matter more than injury chatter at this point, because the match has already reached a completed scoreline.[1][13][14]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Borna Gojo. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade Pronóstico: US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete … on Mundial 2026 Grupos
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